UN chief Fall: Tinubu’s reforms gaining momentum

The United Nations Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Nigeria, Mohamed Malick Fall has undertaken a critical assessment of the President Bola Tinubu’s midterm performance and is persuaded that the economic reform of the administration is transforming the country positively, just as he shares interesting insights on other germane issues bordering on dwindling funds for social interventions, others. He spoke with Vincent Ikuomola. Excerpts:

The United Nations fourth International Conference for Development scheduled for 30 June -4 July 2025 in Seville Spain, can you give an insight to what should be expected from the summit?

Let me first say that this is one of the most important summits. As you know, we look at the SDG as one of the biggest social contracts between the world leaders and their people. And it looks at all walks of life in trying to bring well-being to people across the globe. Unfortunately, in the course of rolling out and implementing the SDG, humanity faced several challenges.

I think the biggest one was the pandemic of COVID-19, then the economic downturn, and now we are seeing a resurgence of conflict almost across the globe. And these are impacting on the progress we make toward the SDG, and in a context where the time we have to bring them back on track is much shorter. Because now the span left, or the window left, is just less than five years, because the goal was for 2030.

In this context, looking at financing, because one of the major obstacles to the acceleration is to find the resources to move ahead the agenda. In this context, I think having a global summit that looks at financing for development and financing for the SDG is some of the most important undertakings. That’s why this year, I think in Seville, world leaders, financial institutions, intergovernmental institutions will get together and look at the current financing architecture. And look at where we stand in terms of financing development, where the gaps are, and how we can collectively address it. I think talking about context, that’s what I wanted to say, just to highlight how crucial it is that this summit lead to a success of finding solutions for development.

Looking at the current financing architecture, aid to developing countries has shrunk or totally cut off. So how do you think Nigeria can raise funds to bridge the gaps created?

It’s true that one of the particularities of 2025 is that we have witnessed a significant decline in Overseas Development Assistance. Some big countries that used to contribute significantly to development and humanitarian assistance have abruptly cut their aid. Some countries are on the same path because of the increase they are having on their defence budget. And this is taking place at the expense of the traditional ODA, or Development Assistance, which was like a target of 0.7% of the GDP of the developed world. And now many countries are explicitly mentioning this. In the context of Nigeria, of course it has a significant impact because it will leave certain sectors, mainly the humanitarian sector, with a huge gap that needs to be addressed.

Certain other sectors, like nutrition, health, education, used to be strongly supported by the development assistance. And through, sometimes, the United Nations or non-governmental organisations. And as you can see, most of those organisations or that architecture is being challenged now. We feel, and I think that’s the main takeaway I have in my engagement with members of the Nigerian government across the board. It’s a challenge, but also an opportunity. Maybe it’s a time, also, or a wake-up call for governments like Nigeria.

But I think beyond Nigeria, governments in the developing world, maybe to step in and look how they can address this gap. And how they can take greater responsibility in addressing the needs of their population. And I feel that Nigeria was one of the first in the developing world to send that strong signal. If you remember, when the cut of USAID in the health sector happened, I think the Minister of Health managed to get an increased budget of more than $200 million to address the gap that this abrupt cut left, mainly in terms of procurement of some critical health commodities. 

We are seeing, also, and working with the government in this direction. Now, what it will call for is how we can increase the possibility of mobilising domestic resources. Now, in this regard, I think Nigeria has a huge impact, as you would see in the headline of the news. Because today, a new tax bill will be signed, and that tax bill is intended not only to harmonise, but to modernise, but to bring coherence in the different layers of taxes, which we believe will increase the revenue generated by tax. Because most of the space that governments have, usually, to spend on the social sector or to spend on development, is mostly linked and correlated with their ability to raise more tax. We know that Nigeria’s tax-GDP ratio is one of the lowest, and I think it has a huge potential to grow. And we are hopeful that, through that path, we can find additional resources that can be allocated to development. 

Let’s not forget that Nigeria has a GDP of around 450 billion U.S. dollars. You know, if you get one point in the increase of the GDP, it’s a massive amount of money that can address the issues of development. And we are hopeful that not only the ongoing economic reform, but at the same time the reform of the tax system and the new bill will help to expand the revenue collected by the state. I feel that the financing of development and the domestic resource mobilisation is not only something we look at through the state.

We look at it also through the increased engagement of the private sector. Let’s not forget that if you look at the region, or the sub-region, or even sub-Saharan Africa, the Nigerian economy and Nigerian private sector is one of the most vibrant and the most active in terms of expansion. I was attending the African Import and Export Bank annual meeting and there was a panel on domestic resource mobilisation and financing development. And we have seen that there are a number of areas where an increase can happen in terms of private sector investing into sectors where they can generate employment, where they can improve sectors like agriculture, improve sectors like energy, mainly the transition toward renewable energy, that have a huge potential. A recent study made by ILO and UNDP indicates that just in doing the right transition toward renewable energy, 12 million jobs can be created in the energy sector. When it comes to agriculture, making it smarter, making it greener, can bring 3 more million jobs. Just to say that engaging further the private sector, creating the condition for increased investment of private capital into the development sector is also another avenue. But we also have other opportunities. One is, for example, addressing the illicit financial flow. Africa, for example, loses up to 90 billion US dollars a year on illicit financial flow. And 20% of that 90 billion dollars a year is coming from Nigeria. I think the Minister of Finance recently mentioned something which is between 16 and 17 billion US dollars lost every year.

But I think that beyond even the illicit financial flow, there are other ways where Africa loses assets linked to the fact that most of the time the raw materials that are produced and for which a country like Nigeria is extremely rich, because of a lack of value chain, because of a lack of transformation on the ground, a lot of loss is experienced by the African economy in this. It is expected or projected that Africa will lose up to 500 billion dollars a year just in a flow that is linked to the lack or to the absence of value chain production. You take a sector like agriculture, 50 to 60% of the post-harvest produce is lost just because of lack of value chain transformation, because of lack of cooling systems, because of challenges in transportation.

But just to say that the potential is extremely big. Maybe a last number I want to give in terms of financing and in terms of blending or innovative financing that can support development. You take, for example, remittance from the diaspora. Africa, I think, collects over 500 billion dollars of remittance a year, which, by the way, is far beyond the amount of assistance to development that the continent is receiving. And then, in a country like Nigeria, you have between 22 to 25 billion dollars a year that is coming from the diaspora, which to me also is another way where we can innovate financing. 

Now, in this context, the government’s role is not only to address the efficiency of management, to address the illicit flow that the country is experiencing, but also to create the environment that is conducive for the private sector to invest. Everyone talks about de-risking, which is something that is extremely important, improving the condition of production, improving security, training farmers so that the quality of their products is enhanced and be more attractive to the private sector, and giving to young people the skills they need to be able to create their own entrepreneurship, their own enterprises to expand the entrepreneurship among the young people. A number of, I think, directions are there whereby we can see a complete shift of paradigm. But I also think Nigeria has to be part of the global conversation, because one thing which is undeniable is that we have a global financial architecture which does not always work for a country like Nigeria.

If you look at, for example, the credit rating agencies, the way they rate the economy in sub-Saharan Africa, or the way they rate African countries, sometimes people say that it’s a rating that is based on their perception, but not on the economic reality of the country. But now, how do you change? Because this is an architecture that was created 80 years ago, after the Second World War. Is it really fit? Is it really adequate for today’s world? This is also part of the conversation in which I think the government of Nigeria is playing a role.

And I think a modified and a more favourable financial architecture could help Nigerians to access the capital market, to the government to maybe borrow at a rate that is much lower, and maybe to address also the debt burden that is strangling the economy. Because if you look at close to 40 or 49 percent of the public expenditure is used to pay the debt services. And I think this also has a huge impact on the margin the government has to invest in the economy, or in the social sector, or in the development sector.

Most of the argument by Nigerians, or even those outside, is that Nigeria has the resources-the manpower, to make the country great, not to depend on developed countries. But where do you think we missed it?

I believe that where we truly miss it is where our capacity of transforming the resources here is limited. To the point that if you have raw material, that you sell abroad, and which comes back to you at a price which is 10 times what you have sold it, it is a kind of loss of economic opportunity that is there, which you need to address. That’s one thing. If the financial architecture is defined in a way that those who rate people, and we all know that the interest rate you pay for the loan you take, or for the debt you have, is mostly depending on the level of risk you are rated for. If that remains high, to the point that you borrow at an interest rate which is so high that the reimbursement of that debt service takes almost all the revenue you generate, that leaves you a little margin. I think also the fact that we need to look at the demographics of Nigeria as a dividend, as an asset, but not as a burden. But to have it as a dividend and as an asset, you need to invest in human capital. If people are healthier, if people have better nutrition, if people have better education, if the environment has improved security, those are the elements that will trigger the development process. You know, in today’s world, everyone knows that what drives progress, what drives growth, is mostly, knowledge and skills. 

There are countries today that are developed and that do not have any resources underground, but just have made the choice to invest in human capital. And I think if we also help Nigeria to increase its investment on human capital, mainly nutrition, health, education, sanitation, you will create a condition where this big demographic becomes a dividend. And let’s not forget that 20 to 25 years down the line, Nigeria’s current population will double. And by then, Nigeria not only will be the third biggest demographic in the world, but among the big demographic in the world, it will have the youngest population. And that young population, to me, is an asset. But to get it and to transform it into a dividend or an asset, it’s right now that we need to do the investment. And that’s why we are saying that if there is any country where the SDG or where the acceleration of the SDG resonates so well with what the need of the country is, it’s Nigeria. Because if you transform Nigeria today in all the areas targeted by the SDG, two, three decades down the line, Nigeria will emerge as a big power. Not power by the name, but power by the reality, which we have seen already. I mentioned the private sector, the innovation sector, art, culture and creative economy are also other sectors where really, you can see Nigeria blossoming. But I feel that we can expand that growth and that development if we further invest in the human capital. And I think the whole stake around the acceleration of the SDG, for me, is around that human capital development.

So, invariably, investment in human capital will also help to actualise the one trillion economy that the President is talking about?

Indeed. Because, as I say, if you look at history, there was a time when agriculture was the engine of development. There was a time when industry was the engine of development. But now services, knowledge and skill are the engine of development. You take a country like Singapore, even a country like the US, the most developed countries, what is contributing more to their GDP? And if you develop the human capital, you have an expanded private sector that generates wealth, generates employment. You have young people that are upskilled, reskilled, to the point that they can contribute to the development of their community, of their state, of their country. You have the right policy that makes Nigeria shift toward renewable energy. You have the right policy that makes Nigeria shift toward mitigating the degradation of the environment or the impact of climate change. You create an improved environment in terms of security, which allows people to have access to livelihood, to have access to economic opportunity, to have access to services. You create all the ingredients that it takes for Nigeria. Because a $1 trillion economy is just to double the GDP from where it is today. Today we are talking about between $400 and $450 billion. You add $1 billion, if you do maybe 2-3% growth, and then you add $50 billion, you are halfway. It will take you may be less than 5 years or less than 10 years, let’s say, for the economy to reach $1 trillion. 

But that will require some engine that will require some institutional setting that I believe the government is working on. But I think if we succeed in this direction, it will easily reach that level or that target of a $1 trillion economy. But I just don’t want people to think that that level will be reached only if you continue to export minerals and you don’t transform them here. If you only count on investment coming from the government, private sector, national and international, local and national have a role to play in it. And I think also when you have the citizens that have good health, good nutrition, good ability to learn, young people that have the right skill and the skill of today, not the skill of the 20th century or 19th century, but the skill of the 21st century; Nigeria is prepared to play that role.

Looking at this summit, as it pertains to Nigeria, would you say that the level of awareness of the private sector is low as to their role in financing development in Nigeria?

I’m not sure.

So what is the gap?

I feel the private sector in Nigeria is extremely vibrant. They understand their role and they are playing it. As I say, I was just this morning, all the morning I was sitting in the African Import and Export Bank Annual Meeting, but I think across the continent people are thinking that right now we have the solution to get the private sector further engaged in development. What we do not have fully is all the policy framework that we need to de-risk the sector and to have the guarantee for the private sector also to invest into development. Because let’s not forget also the private sector, we cannot change them. They cannot move from their role of earning resources to replace investing for nothing in development. That’s why we in the UN here, we are promoting in the engagement with the private sector what we call the win-win and share-value approach, which is that sometimes private sectors get higher return and get higher impact in terms of growing their business by investing in development. And the example I’m always giving is that the more people are financially literate, the more people are able to have mastery on a digital platform, maybe the better it is for the digital economy, the better it is for the banking sector. Then when you invest on education or when you invest on digitisation, the education platform, you are not doing it only for the government or for the people, you are also helping the private sector. And I think the private sector in Nigeria has a good understanding. We had earlier this week a press conference with One Sterling Foundation, which is a foundation set up by One Sterling Bank, and we have what we call Annual Social Impact Summit, which brings together hundreds of private sector, mostly from Nigeria, and showing and getting together and seeing how and what are the kind of prerequisites for the private sector to have greater engagement, more impactful engagement, into the development sector. Last year in November, we organised with UNHCR and IOM a regional conference on private sector and durable solutions for displacement, because we know also, because of the whole shock we have in the country, sometimes linked to climate crisis, sometimes linked to security, sometimes linked to violence that are prevailing here and there, the country has the largest number of displaced people in sub-Saharan Africa.

And we believe that those people are not in this displacement by choice, the circumstances that have driven them to do it. But now, to address their problem, for a long time, we thought that, you know, you give humanitarian assistance, you save lives, you reduce their vulnerability. But then, we think that, no, for their own dignity, what you need to do is to invest for them to access livelihood, to access economic opportunity, and that’s what will make them regain their dignity, come back on their feet, and be able to assume their own well-being. And I felt last year we have mobilised a big number of private sectors with international financial cooperation, with African financial cooperation. There are a number of agencies that are working together. We are also working with a development bank, but we are also working with commercial and private banks. And all of these are really helping to develop products or to develop capital that can help small businesses to thrive. 

And here in Nigeria, you have Dangote, which has a foundation that invests in health, nutrition, and polio eradication. The Tony Elumelu Foundation has been grooming young people toward entrepreneurship and helping them to learn lessons or to learn from the failure that they had before to avoid and to tell them how a business can grow and thrive. I think that the private sector in Nigeria is the opposite, I feel, extremely aware of their responsibility in developing the country. Now what we need is to look at the environment in which they operate and see where the obstacles are. Is the obstacle linked to the fact that people or young people do not have the skill they require for their business? The farmers, do they have the skill they require? The policy that we have, does it provide the kind of right environment for business to grow? The issues of energy need to be solved because you can’t have industrialisation or development if the power or the energy issue is not linked. And that’s why energy also is one of the six transitions for the acceleration of the SDG. And as you know, Nigeria still has 85 million people who are not connected to power. To renewable energy, to connection to mini-grid, a kind of possibility to expand like nowhere else in the world. And I think those numbers also create a potential of growth that you don’t see anywhere else in the world. And that’s why I think for the business sector, being in Nigeria is something important.

Finally sir, would you say the current administration of President Tinubu is going the right way to re-engineer the economy, to attract private sector participation in development financing?

I believe so. And I think the current reform that is ongoing; everyone can interpret in a different way the removal of the subsidy. If you talk to all the economists, they tell you that it makes the economy much healthier. And even what is called the current depreciation of the Naira is not depreciation. Probably before the Naira was kind of over-evaluated, the increase of the hard currency reserve and a better control of it is also something that is important. I think Nigeria has now committed very strongly to the Africa free trade market initiative. There are a number of initiatives that are in the country which to me are going in the right direction. But as I always say, when you do an economic reform, it also needs to have a human face. Because we all know that one of the unintended consequences of the reform in the early months and the first year was a kind of spike in the inflation rate, mainly the inflation of food prices. And we have been advocating with the Minister of Finance, with the World Bank, with all the development partners for a kind of programme and distribution of cash handouts to the poorest and the most vulnerable people are undertaken.

I think now we have reached 6 million households which is like 30 million people. We still have a long way to go. But in this UN stance it’s always we praise the reform. Mainly it’s timeliness, its boldness, its courage. And everyone says that even in this current world where you have trade war or tariff issues, if this reform was not taken two years ago probably Nigeria wouldn’t be in a position that allows it to face these current challenges. But we are as we praise that boldness of the long overdue reform; we also want to appeal for a kind of human face. That is why we are saying that it is good to reform but it is also good to carry along everyone.  Why are we insisting on education, health for social safety nets, on nutrition because these are the things that make people feel that they are part and parcel of the reform and these are the things that can help address and solve the inequality and hardship for the most vulnerable people. I think this is what I can say about the reforms; it’s on the right path, it’s timely, it’s bold and all the international community are in support and everyone is watching Nigeria and saying it is going in the right direction. But let’s address also, the needs of the most vulnerable, mainly the consequences that were impacted on the most vulnerable. One thing that I have seen which is important is inflation and inflation on food prices.

The way you can address it immediately, is to give cash handouts to people to have access to food commodities.

This interview was first published in the The Nation newspapers of 29 June 2025.